基于希腊主权债务危机的危机预警研究——兼对社会保障支出比重的定量分析

Crisis Early Warning Study Based on Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis——And the Quantitative Analysis of the Proportion of Social Security Expenditure

为了研究债务危机的成因及其预警机制,本文在对希腊主权债务危机演变进行描述性分析的基础上,建立了债务危机预警的Logistic模型。通过SPSS18.0统计软件分析,我们发现了影响债务危机发生的主要指标,包括:一般政府净贷款占GDP比率、国际收支占GDP比率以及社会保障支出占GDP比率、总储蓄规模占GDP比率以及通货膨胀率。其中,所选取的欧洲国家的社会保障支出占GDP的比重约为25%,对于债务危机的爆发的影响系数高达0.620。结合我国的经济形势与社会保障发展现状,本文了提出相关的政策建议。

In order to study the causes of the debt crisis and its early warning mechanism, this paper created an early warning Logistic model based on the descriptive analysis of the process of Greece＇ s sovereign debt crisis. Through the analysis of the SPSS 18.0 statistical software, the key indicators that influenced the debt crisis were found, mainly including the ratio of general government net lending to GDP, international balance of payments to GDP, social security expenditure to GDP, total savings to GDP, and the rate of inflation. Among these, the social security expenditure to GDP of the selected European countries was about 25 % , and the impact coefficient of the debt crisis was up to 0. 620. Combined with Chinag economic situation and social security development status, the relevant policies were recommended.