基于排队论的三峡库区锚地容量分析

Anchorage Capacity Analyzes Based on the Queuing Theory in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

通过调研三峡库区锚地设置现状,以乐天溪锚地为例,结合三峡库区通航船舶流量及尺度分布特点,在综合考虑风、流影响及锚地利用率基础上,参照有关规定测算静态情况下的锚地容量,并运用排队论思想就其容量大小进行动态的适应性分析,进而判断三峡库区锚地容量能否满足航运发展远景需要,最终提出可行的安全管理建议.

The safety of navigational vessels and the Three Gorges Dam was directly affected by the an- chorage capacity. After researching the existing anchorage setup in Three Gorges , taking the traffic flow of ships and classification distribution in Three Gorges into account, the actual anchorage capaci- ty of Letianxi was measured in static state under the comprehensive consideration of wind, flow influ- ence and utilization ratio as an example. Analyzes based on the queuing theory of the capacity were carried out in dynamic state. The adaptation of anchorage capacity to prospective shipping develop- ment was also researched. Some feasible safety management advices were given out. Research results have an important instruction meaning on anchorage settings planning, formulating management con- trol, and traffic organization of lockage.