中国国际海运温室气体排放预测

Forecast Greenhouse Gas Emissions From China’s International Shipping

为了解未来中国国际海运温室气体的排放趋势,采用情景模拟预测法作相关研究.分析了影响排放量的3大因素,即中国国际海运运输周转量、船舶能效以及海运燃料碳排放因子,并对这些因素的未来发展趋势进行了情景分析,设置了中国国际海运周转量未来4种增长模式,即中国速度、与世界海运需求同步发展的高速、低速以及平均速度,对船舶能效以及海运燃料碳排放因子未来发展趋势进行了设定.预测结果表明,2020～2050年间中国国际海运CO2排放量增长势头比世界海运更快,如果未来在全球范围内实施限制海运温室气体排放的相关市场机制,中国国际海运业将承受较大的压力.

To understand better about the future trend of greenhouse gas emissions from Chinese inter- national shipping, a scenario simulation method was introduced to forecast the emissions during the period of 2020-2050. Firstly, three main driving variables were identified, i. e. , the development of China＇s international seaborne trade, ship energy efficiency and carbon emission factors. Then, sce- nario analyses were applied to get the future trends of these factors. Four seaborne trade growth mod- els were designed, including the mode of Chinese speed based on Chinese GDP annual increase rate, the synchronizing speed as an average, lowest or highest rate of world seaborne trade development. Also the trend of marine energy and energy efficiency were integrated in the forecast. The results show that the future carbon dioxide emissions from Chinese international shipping will grow faster than the world shipping. China shipping industry will suffer more stress if the market--based meas- ures are introduced in the world to control the emissions from international shipping.