摘要
基于灰色系统理论和BP神经网络理论,建立船闸货运量混合预测模型,并应用所建模型进行苏北运河船闸货运量预测,通过后期2004～2007年实测值与预测值的对比,发现相对误差很小,预测结果合理可信,由此可以认为,基于灰色神经网络模型的船闸货运量预测方法值得进行推广和探讨.
Based on the grey neural network algorithm, the forecast model of the lock freight volume is established. The future lock freight volume is predicted by using the model. Comparing the computed volume with the statistic value in 2004-2007, it is found that the relative error is little, and the pre- diction is reasonable. Therefore,the forecast method based the grey neural network algorithm is rec- ommended to be used in the waterway engineering.
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》
2013年第1期120-122,共3页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）
关键词
神经网络
灰色理论
船闸
货运量
预测模型
neural network
grey theory
lock
freight volume~ forecast model
