中国城乡居民粮食消费预测与结构优化——基于均衡营养目标的视角

Forecast of Grain Consumption of China's Urban and Rural Citizens and Structural Optimization: Based on Balanced Nutrition Angle

当前粮食消费结构研究存在两方面不足:一是对粮食消费现状和趋势的预测缺乏统一认识;二是对新时期粮食消费结构优化的目标和路径安排缺乏深入研究。通过对相关统计数据和参数的修正及对中国城乡居民粮食消费现状和趋势进行测算,基于均衡营养目标下的粮食需求结构,提出"供需结合,双层调控"的优化调控原则,并从产业结构、科技推广、舆论导向和价格调控等方面进行优化政策框架设计。

There are two main weak points of the current research on grain consumption structure. Firstly, there is lack of unified recognition of the prediction of the current grain consumption situation and its tendency. Secondly, there is lack of in-depth investigation of the aim and route arrangement of the optimization of the new grain consumption structure. By the statistics and revision of the parameters, this article has measured and calculated the status and the tendency of the grain consumption of China＇s urban and rural citizens. Based on the grain consumption structure under the objective of balanced nutrition, the article has put forward the control principle of ＂specified target, differentiated city and countryside, advocacy of public opinion, combination of supply and demand＂ and designed the policy optimization on industrial structure, price control, technology promotion, publicity and introduction, etc.