基于贝叶斯网络的空中交通延误传播分析

Analysis of air traffic delay propagation based on Bayesian networks

从机场网络的角度研究延误传播问题。贝叶斯网络是一种分析传播问题的有效方法,基于贝叶斯网络的延误模型,构造出延误传播的机场网络模型。通过计算网络中条件概率,最终得到联合概率,用于分析机场之间延误传播的影响。实验数据表明,当某一机场产生离场延误时,这一延误不会消失,而是经过时间的推移传播到其他机场,造成其他机场的延误。

Based on Bayesian networks delay model, is the delay spread airport network modelis. By calculating the conditional probability of network, finally get the joint probability, is used to analyze the effects of delays propagation between the airport. The experiment data show that, when an airport departure delays produced, the delay will not disappear, but after a time spread to other airports, causing other airport delays.