气候变化背景下未来农业干旱变化趋势

Future agricultural drought changing trend under climate change

选择我国主要江河流域区,利用1956～2007年计52年的天然径流和农业受旱率资料、VIC模型和水量平衡模型模拟的A1B情景下3种气候模式(NCAR、CSIRO、MPI)基准期1961～1990年、预测期2009～2060年水资源量系列,利用Matlab建立径流量与农业受旱率的关系模型,预测了我国未来农业受旱率并分析了未来干旱变化趋势。

Based on the data of the continuous annual natural runoff and agricultural drought rate within a period of 52 years （1956- 2007 ）, VIC model and the series of water resources amounts of the calibration period（ 1961 -1990） and the prediction period（2009 - 2060） with three climate patterns（ NCAR, CSIRO, MPI）under A1B scenario simulated with the water balance model, the future agricuhural drought rate in China is predicted herein, and then the changing trend of the drought in the future is also analyzed with the Matlab based model of the correlation between runoff and agricultural drought rate on the basis of taking the main river basins in China as the study areas.