利用时间序列模型预测黑龙江省大豆的比较优势

Prediction for Soybean Comparative Advantage in Heilongjiang Province Based on Time Series Model

以黑龙江省26年的大豆产量和种植规模作为研究对象,根据时间序列分析和作物比较优势的原理,建立大豆综合比较优势指数的时间序列模型,对优势指数做出预测。结果表明:2012～2017年黑龙江省大豆生产的比较优势指数分别为1.873、1.7323、1.7592、1.6106、1.6383,说明相对于全国大豆生产是占优势的,但是指数呈逐年下降趋势,所以建议有关部门给予足够的重视。

According to the principle of time series and eropcomparative advantage,takiag the yield and planting area of soy- bean in Heilongjiang province form 1985 to 2010 as the research objects. We established the time series prediction model of the comprehensively comparative advantage of soybean in Heilongjiang province. The results illustrated that from 2012 to 2017 the comparative advantage for soybean production in Heilongjiang province were 1. 873,1. 7323,1. 7592,1. 6106 and 1. 6383, re- spectively. This proved the soybean production in Heilongiiang province had an advantage over national level, but the advantage showed a decreasing trend. We suggest that relevant agricultural departments should oav enough attention about this trend.