主权信用货币国际体系下对外资产低收益现象研究

A Study of Low Return Phenomenon of Foreign Assets under International Monetary System Dominated by Sovereign Currencies

借鉴基本因素均衡实际利率思想,构建对外资产基本因素均衡收益率缺口测算模型。实证结果表明:尽管美元计价资产具有高流动性、安全性,并且供给量充分,但中国、印度、巴西三国对外美元资产均衡收益率缺口为负,美元"过度特权"与本币实际汇率价值损失效应是缺口为负的两大原因。美元主导的单极国际货币体系下,中国等国家对外资产低收益是必然的,即使在多元主权信用货币国际体系下,该现象也不会得到显著改善。

Referring to fundament equilibrium exchange rate theory, this paper proposes a measurement model of equilibrium return gap on foreign assets. It indicates that although dollar denominated reserve as- sets are of super liquidity and safety, as well as supply in sufficient quantity, it delivers a very low （and in fact negative） return, the dollar＇s ＂exorbitant privilege＂ and real exchange rate valuation loss effect are the two fundamental reasons for the low return phenomenon. Such phenomenon is destined under current inter- national monetary system dominated in a single currency dollar, and it would not change much in multi-cur- rency international monetary system.