摘要
根据永定河流域石匣里站、响水堡站和官厅水库站1956年-2003年的年径流资料,应用Mann-kendall检验法、Pettitt检验法、滑动T检验和小波分析法等方法分析了永定河流域年径流量的趋势性、周期性及突变特征,并从气候变化及人类活动两方面分析其影响因素。结果表明永定河流域年径流量一直处于显著下降趋势中,存在27(28)年的第一主周期和20(21)年的第二主周期;1982年-1983年径流量发生突变,突变前后变化较大。径流量变化的主要影响因素是人类活动,如土地利用、闸坝工程建设以及地下水过度开采等;气候变化对径流量也有一定的影响。
The Mann-kendall test, Pettitt test, Moving-T test, and Wavelet analysis were applied to analyze the trend, periodicity, and mutation of annual runoff in the Yongding River Basin according to the annual runoff data at the Shixiali, Xiangshuibao, and Guanting reservoir stations from 1956 to 2003, and the influencing factors were also discussed from the aspects of climate change and human activities. The results showed that （1） the annual runoff in the Yonding River Basin decreases significantly from 1956 to 2003,and 27（28） is the first major period while 20（21） is the second major period;and （2） the annual runoff varies abruptly in 1982-1983. The variation of runoff was mainly caused by human activities, such as land utilization, gate dam construction, and groundwater overexploitation. Meanwhile, climate change has also effects on the variation of runoff to some extent.
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第1期17-22,共6页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
北京师范大学自主科研基金(2009SD-27)
北部湾环境演变与资源利用省部共建教育部重点实验室(BBG1109)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金
关键词
永定河
年径流量
趋势变化
周期变化
突变点
影响因素
Yongding River
annual runoff
trend change
periodic variation
breakpoint
influencing factors
