世界能源消费收敛性分析——基于Phillips&Sul方法

Analysis of Global Energy Consumption Convergence —Based on the Method of Phillips & Sul

选择经合组织(OECD)27国(发达国家)与金砖5国(新兴快速发展中国家)为样本,运用Phillips&Sul提出的判断收敛性的方法,考察其人均能源消费的收敛性。实证研究发现:总体32国的人均能源消费不具有收敛性;在OECD 27国中,剔除冰岛后的26个发达国家的人均能源消费具备收敛特征;金砖5国人均能源消费也具有收敛性,但收敛速度缓慢,明显慢于上述26个发达国家。收敛性的分析结果表明:发达国家和发展中国家之间人均能耗演变呈现分异特征,而发达国家彼此之间以及发展中国家相互之间节能政策合作的潜力较大,人均能耗具有相似的演变特征。这意味着,在全球能源约束尤其是全球气候变化约束下,发达国家与发展中国家在节能政策达成一致的难度较大,相对而言,发达国家、发展中国家两大阵容各自内部在节能政策选择方面形成共识的可能性较大。

By adopting 27 countries of OECD （developed countries）and 5 countries of BRICS （rapidly developing countries）as the sample,this study applied the method put forward by Phillips ＆ Sul （2007）in analyzing the convergence of per capita energy consumption. The result of empirical research shows that the convergence is nonexistent overall. With the exception of Iceland ,the energy consumption per capita of the other 26 developed countries converges,while another energy consumption per capita of 5 developing countries of converges with a slow speed,which is obviously slower than that of developed countries. The analysis of convergence shows that the evolution of per capita energy consumption between developed and developing countries evinces the characteristics of differentiation,while the evolution of per capita consumption among developed countries as well as developing countries is similar,which indicates great potential for energy-saving policy cooperation between developed and developing countries. This means that with the constraints of global energy and global climate change, the developed and developing countries have lots of difficulties in reaching agreement in energy-saving policy,while in constrast, the consensus of energy-saving policy among developed countries or developing countries will be more easily achieved.