粤澳经济合作:基于一体化视角的实证分析

Guangdong and Macao Economic Cooperation: An Empirical Analysis Based on an Integrated Perspective

选取1988—2010年间的粤澳GDP增长率,并运用HP滤波方法得到粤澳经济增长的周期数据,采用交叉相关分析、迭代的相关分析等方法研究了粤澳经济增长和经济周期之间的同步关系,研究结果表明,在样本期内:粤澳之间存在经济增长和经济周期的同步性,随着两地区经济合作程度的加深,粤澳经济周期同步性明显增强。由于粤澳区域经济尚未完全实现整合,澳门自身微型经济的特殊性,粤澳经济指标的相互解释能力还很弱,区域合作中还存在很多问题,粤澳经济一体化还任重道远。

This paper selected GDP growth in 1988—2010 of Guangdong and Macao,used the HP filter method to get Guangdong and Macao＇s economic growth cycle data,and then applied cross-correlation analysis and iterative analysis methods to study the synchronization of economic growth and cycle between Guangdong and Macao.The results show that Guangdong and Macao have synchronization between economic growth and the economic cycle,while in the sample period,with the deepening of the economic cooperation of the two regions,the synchronization of Guangdong and Macao economic cycle is significantly enhanced.Because the regional economic integration of Guangdong and Macao has not been fully realized,Macao＇s own micro-economy has its own characteristics,and each of Guangdong and Macao＇s economic indicators is also very weak,there are many problems in the regional cooperation.The economic integration of Guangdong and Macao still has a long way to go.