碳泄漏与我国碳密集产业进出口贸易关系研究

Research on Relations Between Carbon Leakage and Trade of Carbon Intensive Industry in China

分析了碳泄漏发生—传导—影响机制,运用ADF平稳性检验、Johansen协整检验、多元回归分析等方法,检验了碳密集产业相关产品的进出口额与碳泄漏的相互影响关系。研究表明,碳泄漏与碳密集产业相关产品的进出口额存在长期协整关系,矿物燃料、润滑油及有关原料进口对碳泄漏具有替代作用,非食用原料进口、橡胶矿冶产品出口与碳泄漏存在正向的回归关系,化学品及有关产品出口额与碳泄漏呈现负向的回归关系。

The mechanism of occurrence-conduction-influence of Carbon Leakage is analyzed. The interrelation between Carbon Leakage and im- port and export sales of carbon intensive industry products is tested with the methods of ADF test, Johansen Cointegration test and Multiple Re- gression Analysis. The results shows that Carbon Leakage and import and export sales of carbon intensive industry products have long-term cointe- gration relations. The import of mineral fuel, lubricating oil and related materials has substitution effect on Carbon Leakage. The import of non- food raw materials has positive regression relations with Carbon Leakage. The export of rubber products and mining and metallurgy products has positive regression relations with Carbon Leakage. The export of Chemicals and related products has negative regression relations with Carbon Leakage.