基于因子分析的青海省水资源承载力综合评价

Comprehensive evaluation of carrying capacity of water resources of Qinghai Province based on factor analysis

运用因子分析法从时间的角度对青海省水资源承载力进行综合评价。结果表明:影响青海省水资源承载力的3大因子分别为人口、经济和消费因子,水资源供给能力和工业用水因子,耗水量和农业用水因子;2002—2009年,青海省的水资源承载力整体上呈稳步增长的趋势,但在2009年有所回落,预测青海省水资源承载力会继续呈上升的发展趋势。探讨提高青海省水资源承载力的方法和措施:进一步加强水利工程建设,充分挖掘水资源的开发潜力,提高水利工程的蓄水保水能力,并转变原有经济发展模式,优化产业结构。

The method of factor analysis was used to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources of Qinghai Province from a temporal view. The results show that the population, economic, and consumption factors ; the water supply capacity and industrial water factors ; and the water consumption and agricultural water factors are three main factors affecting the carrying capacity of water resources of Qinghai Province. During the period from 2002 to 2009, the overall carrying capacity of water resources in Qinghai Province improved steadily, except for a fluctuation in 2009. It is predicted that the water resources carrying capacity will have an increasing trend in the future. The methods and measures of enhancing the water resources carrying capacity are discussed, including strengthening of hydraulic engineering construction, enhancement of water resources exploitation, improvement of water storage and preservation capacity, transformation of the original economic development pattern, and optimization of industrial structure.