缓冲算子改进灰色模型在变形预测中的应用

Application of Improved Grey Model with Buffer Operator in Deformation Forecasting

灰色模型用于建筑物变形监测分析和预测时,通常依靠时间信息建立预测模型,但该类模型不能充分反映点位变化规律。在对变形监测时间序列定性分析的基础上,提出利用缓冲算子对变化幅度大的点进行调整,以此建立改进的灰色模型,再进行预测,并用实例进行分析验证,取得了更优的预测效果,精度也有所提高。

The grey model is generally founded on the time information when used in building deformation monitoring analysis and prediction, but the model cannot fully reflect the change of points. Based on the qualitative analysis for the time sequence of deformation monitoring, the buffer operator is used to pre-adjust the points with big change ranges. So the improved grey model is built, then used for forecasting. By using a real example for analysis and verification, the prediction results are better than before, and the precision is also improved.