陕西省城镇居民消费与收入关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Consumption and Income of Urban Residents in Shaanxi Province

运用计量经济方法实证分析1978-2011年陕西省城镇居民实际消费与实际收入之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。协整检验结果表明,陕西省城镇居民实际消费和实际收入具有长期均衡关系,收入增加带动了消费增长;由误差修正模型可知,陕西省城镇居民实际消费和实际收入之间的关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度快。因此,政府应建立增加居民收入的长期机制,积极采取措施降低居民对未来支出增加的预期,以扩大陕西省城镇居民的消费需求。

This paper uses quantitative analysis method to analyze empirically the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic relation-ship between the actual consumption and income of urban residents in Shaanxi Province from 1984 to 2010. By co-integration test, the analysis obtains that there is a long-term stable relationship between actual consumption and income of urban residents in Shaanxi Province and then income contributes to the increase in consumption. Through the establishment of error correction model, it is found that the relationship between consumption and income of Shaanxi Province adjust quickly from short-term deviation to long-term equilibrium. In order to enlarge consumption of urban residents in Shaanxi Province, the government should establish the long-term mechanism to in- crease the income of urban residents, and actively take measures to reduce the expect of expenditure increase in the future.