金属物质社会蓄积量与经济产出关联分析

Quantifying Social Stock of Metal Substance and Its Relationship with Economic Output

给出了金属物质社会蓄积量的计算式,并与GDP指标相结合,构建了金属物质社会蓄积量与GDP之间的关联式.以我国铝工业为例进行了分析,在设定铝制品的平均使用寿命为16年的情况下,得到以下结果:2006年—2009年,铝的社会蓄积量由5 420万t增加到8 890万t,单位铝的社会蓄积量所产生的GDP由3.969万美元/t降低到3.307万美元/t.针对我国铝工业的现状提出,提高单位GDP铝消费量的年下降率可逐步缓解铝消费量增速过快的态势.给出了两种情景分析,并分析了情景模式下的铝消费状况.

A formula for calculating social stock of metal substance was given.It was also combined with GDP index in order to attain the relationship formula between social stock of metal substance and GDP.As an example,the Chinese aluminum industry was analyzed based on the proposed idea.Assuming that the average service life of aluminum products is 16 years,the analysis results were as follows：the social stock of Al-content increased from 5 420×104 t to 8 890×104 t and GDP generated per unit social stock of Al-content decreased from 3.969×104 dollars/t to 3.307×104 dollars/t over the period 2006-2009.According to the present situation of Chinese aluminum industry,it was believed that raising the annual decline rate of aluminum consumption per unit GDP could gradually slow the growth rate of aluminum consumption,and two scenarios were analyzed for the future development of Chinese aluminum industry.