水文序列变异的空间尺度主因分析方法

Key-factor analysis of alteration in hydrological series on spatial scale

由于自然因素和人为因素的相互交织,在对变化环境下水文序列变异的影响因素进行归因分析时,不同方法所得出的结论不同,甚至差异很大,其可信度和可参考性往往不能尽如人意.为了能够准确锁定引起区域水文变异的重点区域,提出了空间尺度的主因分析方法.该方法以具有空间嵌套关系的水文序列变异诊断结果为基础,通过空间变异关系图和相关系数,综合判断引起水文序列发生变异的重点区域.结合乌力吉木仁河三级区及其所辖四级区1956-2000年(共45年)的水文序列进行实例验证和物理成因分析,结果显示四级区赤峰是引起三级区水文序列出现变异的主因所在,这个结果对当地水资源保护、规划和管理等相关部门在开展工作、锁定重点治理区域时,具有一定的指导作用.

When the attribution analysis is studied to analyze the affecting factors of the alteration in the hydrological series in the changing environment,the satisfaction of reliability and referential function of the conclusion are not very well because of the intercross of the natural and anthropogenic factors.In order to focus the intensive district that induce the alteration of regional water resources precisely,the key-factor analysis method is put forward.Based on the alteration analysis conclusions of hydrological series with the relationship of spatial nesting,by the figure of spatial alteration relationship and correlation coefficient,the intensive district that induce the alteration of regional water resources is estimated comprehensively finally.With the hydrological series from the year of 1956 to 2000（45 years in total） of the third grade Wulijimuren River and the fourth grade attached,the method is applied to testify the applicability and feasibility.The results show that,the fourth grade Chifeng is the intensive district that induced the hydrological alteration of the third grade Wulijimuren River;and the conclusions could play a directive part in the works of water resources protection,water resources planning and management and intensive district confirmation and improvement,etc.