中国区域人口素质变迁与经济增长研究

The Research between the Quality of Chinese Regional Population and the Economic Growth

文章利用人口总数、人口出生率、平均受教育年限、教育基尼系数、卫生经费比、老年人口抚养比、第三产业就业人数比和城镇人口比等8个指标,选取32个省市自治区1997-2010年数据,采用因子分析法构造人口综合素质指数,并运用道格拉斯生产函数模型分总体和地区进行混合面板数据回归,发现人口素质对经济增长影响显著,且东、中、西部和东北地区人口素质差异明显,对经济增长的贡献率也相差悬殊,表明西部地区正在由劳动密集型发展阶段向资本拉动型阶段转变,中部和东北地区由资本拉动型阶段向人口素质推动型阶段转变,东部地区属于人口素质推动经济不断优化阶段。最后,还针对区域发展差异提出了相应的举措和建议。

This paper constructs the index of population comprehensive quality by factor analysis method using average school years, education Gini coefficient, old-age dependency ratio, urban population ratio etc. during 1997-2010 in 32 provinces. Then the author proceeds the overall and regional mixing panel data regression in Douglas production function model. Report shows that： The quality of the population has significant influence on economic growth. There are obvious differences in the quality of the population between the eastern, central, western and northeastern region with disparities in the contribution rate of economic growth. The western region is changing from labor-intensive stage of development to the capital-pull stage, the central and northeastern regions are transiting from the capital-pull stage to the population quality driven phase, the eastern region is the quality of the popu- lation to promote continued economic optimization phase. This study also proposes initiatives and proposals accord- ing to differences in regional development.