TBM弹道预测及其误差分析

Research on Trajectory Prediction and Error Analysis of TBM

为了分析地球旋转对弹道预测的影响过程,以战术弹道导弹关机后任意一点为基准点,录取该点的坐标和速度矢量,基于所建立的坐标系,通过坐标转换及中段弹道参数计算,有效地简化了预测状态的过程,计算出基于战术弹道导弹关机后任意一点的弹道预测模型,通过该模型,可以在发现来袭战术弹道导弹后,预测该导弹在其后任意时刻的三维坐标。采用射程大于1 000km的弹道数据进行仿真,对弹道预测的误差进行分析,验证了地球旋转对TBM弹道预测的影响。

When the hitting range of TBM is greater than a certain degree,the earth＇s rotation will have a huge impact on the error of trajectory prediction,The kinds of factors that give rise to errors are so many that it＇s hard to analyze the errors intuitively.In order to analyze the influence of the earth＇s rotation on the process of trajectory prediction,a random point is selected as the datum point after the rocket engine is shut down in this paper,the coordinate and the velocity vector of this point are obtained.Based on the coordinate system established,the process of the trajectory prediction is decomposed through coordinate transforming and the parameter calculation of midcourse,the trajectory prediction models are established based on the datum point,these models are practical and easy to be realized in engineering.Three-dimensional coordinates of TBM at random time can be predicted through these models after it is detected.We use the data of the trajectory whose hitting range is greater than 1000 kilometers to simulate and to analyze the error of trajectory prediction.The result proves that the earth＇s rotation will have an impact on the trajectory prediction.