1978～2010年哈密地区耕地面积变化规律及驱动力分析

Study on the Variation Law of Cultivated Land and the Driving Factors in Hami during 1978-2010

运用1978～2010年的统计资料,研究了改革开放以来哈密地区耕地数量变化趋势区域差异及驱动力。结果显示:从改革开放以来哈密耕地变化过程分3个阶段:①1978～1986年,全哈密地区耕地面积呈减少趋势;②1986～2006年,全哈密地区耕地面积变化波动比较多,总体增长趋势;③2008年达到了最高值87 090 hm2,2008年以来耕地面积变化不大。哈密地区耕地空间变化区域差异显著,哈密市耕地面积不断增加,1978～1994、1995～2010年2个阶段耕地动态度K2>K1。哈密耕地变化的主要影响因子有社会经济因素、人口因素以及农业生产条件等。

According to statistical and survey data from 1978 to 2010,the variation trend,regional differences and driving factors of cultivated land in Hami were studied since the reform and opening.The results showed that the change process of cultivated land can be divided into three stages： from 1978 to 1986,cultivated land area of the whole Hami decreased;from 1986 to 2006,cultivated land area varied with a fluctuant,but the overall trend was growth;cultivated land area reached the highest point（87 090 hm2） in 2008,but has little change since 2008.Regional differences of cultivated land were very notable.The cultivated land area in Hami City increased continuously,with dynamic degree of K2K1 during 1978-1994 and 1995-2010.The main influencing factors for the cultivated land variation in Hami are development of social economy,growth of population and advancement in agricultural technology,etc.