基于烟叶生产全程质量监控的烤烟产量预测

The Forecast of Tobacco Output Based on the Total Quality Control of Tobacco Production

为了较为准确的预测遵义市烟叶产量,调整县域间计划量,在烟叶生产全程质量监控的基础上,利用烤烟种植区划成果,选定不同生态区进行烟叶产量预测。3年预测结果表明:预测遵义市烟叶产量与实际收购数量仅相差59.5万kg,相对误差为0.64%,基本接近收购量。较好的预测效果与精度,为烟叶计划调整和生产后期采取相应措施提供了决策依据。

Using the flue-cured tobacco planting regionalization achievements, different ecological areas were selected to forecast tobacco output based on the total quality control of tobacco produetion system, whieh was targeted to forecast tobacco output more accurate and adjust purchase plan among counties. Practice of three years presented that the difference between forecast value and actual value is 0.595 million kilograms, the relative error is 0.64%, the forecast value is close to the aetual value. This method has good forecast effect and accuracy, which provides deci- siort-making basis for adjusting the purchase plan in the late of tobacco production.