农业面源污染背后的农户行为——基于山东省昌乐县调查数据的面板分析

The Farm Household's Behavior behind Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution:A Panel Analysis on Changle County in Shandong Province

基于2006—2010年山东省昌乐县调查数据,分析影响农户化肥和农药支出行为的主要因素。结果表明:农户化肥、农药的支出和其经营收入正相关,和经营土地面积、常住人口数、受教育程度负相关;随着农户家庭经营收入的不断增加和家庭常住人口的不断减少,化肥和农药支出强度将继续提高,农业面源污染会进一步恶化;提高土地经营规模、提升农户教育层次有助于减轻农业面源污染。

Based on the survey data from 2006 to 2010 in Changle County, the main factors which impact the farmer household＇ s fertilizer and pesticide expenditure behavior are analysed. The expenditure on fertilizer and pes- ticide correlates positively with farm household＇ s operating income, and correlates negatively with farm household＇ s land area, resident population and level of education. With the increase of farm household＇ s operating income and the decrease of resident population, the expenditure on fertilizer and pesticide will continue to increase, and the agricultural non-point source pollution will get worse. Enlarging the operating scale and raising the education level will reduce the agricultural non-point source pollution.