黑龙江省产业能源碳排放因素分解及减排分析

Analysis on industrial energy carbon emission factors decomposition and emission reduction in Heilongjiang Province

能源消费是碳排放的主要来源。随着黑龙江省经济的快速发展,能源消费的急剧增长以及以煤为主的能源结构在一定时间内很难改变,因此,碳排放量在短时间内很难下降。本文分析了1980-2010年黑龙江省三大产业碳排放变化情况,并对黑龙江省1980和2010两年不同行业能源利用碳排放总量进行对比。采用LMDI分解法,定量分析了1980-2010年间,经济规模、产业结构、技术进步与能耗结构四个因素对黑龙江省产业碳排放增量的影响。研究发现,经济规模效应是正向决定性因素,能耗结构调整的影响效果不显著,技术进步与产业结构效应是负向决定性因素。最后提出了相应的减排政策建议。

Energy consumption is the main source of carbon emissions. With the economic expanding in Heilongjiang province, the sharp increase of energy consumption and coal-dominated energy structure is difficult to change in short-term, therefore, the carbon emissions is difficult to decline in short-tenn. This paper analyzes the changes in carbon emissions of the three major indus- tries in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2010, and compares the total amount of carbon emissions of the different industries in Heilon^iang Province about 1980 and 2010. The LMDI decompo- sition method is adopted to analyze the influence of industrial carbon emission increment on the economic scale, industrial struc- ture, technology progress and the energy consumption structure in Heilongjiang Province from1980 to 2010 year, The study found that economic scale effect is positive decisive factor, the influence of the energy consumption structure adjustment effect is not signifi- cant, the technical progress and industrial structure effect is negative to the decisive factor. Finally, the emission reduction policy recommendations.