外部性、市场潜能与旅游业发展——来自中国的经验证据

Externalities,Market Potential and Tourism Development: An Empirical Evidence from China

旅游产业集聚作为旅游产业结构动态调整的空间组织形态,其对旅游业发展具有复杂的影响机制。近年来,此领域逐渐引起理论界的关注。传统的产业外部性理论主要适用于产业间的空间作用关系对于产业发展的重要性,但却鲜有研究深入到单一产业内部来探究细分行业间的外部性作用。鉴于此,本文基于一般性的产业外部性分析方法,在旅游产业内部,探究外部性对于旅游业发展的影响。研究结果表明,在全国样本范围内,多样化的旅游业发展环境显著促进旅游业发展,支持了Jacobs外部性,但拒绝了MAR外部性与Porter外部性假设;旅游专业化与旅游业发展之间存在一种非线性关系;在与旅游多样化和旅游市场潜能等因素相互配合作用下,旅游专业化对旅游业发展的影响转变为正向促进效应存在一定滞后性;此外,在新经济地理学框架内,构建了旅游市场潜能变量,研究发现,其可以强化旅游专业化与旅游多样化对旅游业发展的正向促进效应。

As spatial organization form of tourism structure＇s dynamic adjustment, tourism agglomeration has a complex impact mechanism on tourism development,and this field gradually aroused the concern of theorists in recent years. The traditional industry externality theory mainly applies to the importance of spatial interaction among industries for industry development, but little research explores externalities among industry segments within a single industry. In view of this, this paper explores the impact of externalities on tourism development within tourism based on external analysis of general industries. From the whole country we find that specialization and competition have a negative effect on tourism development, while diversity has a significantly positive effect on tourism development. The effect of specialization on tourism development is nonlinear; under the coordination with diversity and market potential, the effect of specialization on tourism development becomes positive with a delay. In addition, market potential can strengthen the positive effect of specialization and diversity on tourism development within the framework of the new economic geography.