中国碳排放增长的驱动因素分析

Analysis of the Driving Factors for Changing Carbon Emission in China

本文采用对数平均权重Divisia分解法(LMDI),分别基于不同分解层次(3个产业、8个主要部门、43个子部门)以及短期(1994-2008年)、长期(1980-2008年)两个时间段来考察产出效应,技术效应、结构变化效应、能源结构效应对于碳排放的影响。计量结果表明:产出效应和结构变化效应是碳排放不断增长的主要原因,技术效应和能源结构效应则是有效降低碳排放的重要手段;部门结构细分程度越高,产出效应、技术效应、结构变化效应的解释力越弱,而能源结构效应的解释力却显著增强;长期内产出效应、技术效应对于碳排放的解释力均下降,结构变化效应、能源结构效应的解释力却大幅度提高;此外,我们发现能源结构效应、能源价格与GDP和碳排放之间的去耦指数正相关。

Based on the different decomposition hierarchies （3 industries,8 sectors and 43 sub-industries）, we use Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index （LMDI） techniques to decompose energy-related carbon emission changes from 1994 to 2008 and from 1980 to 2008. Empirical studies indicate that： output effect and structural change effect are confirmed as the dominant contributors to the rise of carbon emission, and technological effect and energy structural effect have the negative effect on carbon emission~ the explanatory power of output effect, technological effect and structural change effect decline as the level of sectoral disaggregation becomes finer, but the explanatory power of energy structural effect rises. The explanatory power of output effect and technological effect decline in the long run, however, the explanatory power of structural change effect and energy structural effect rise,and we find that energy structural change effect and energy price have the positive impact on the decoupling index of GDP and energy-related carbon emission.