极端气候对平均气候变化的非线性响应及其敏感性试验

Nonlinear Response and Sensitivity Test for Extreme Climate Relative to Average Climate

平均气候与极端气候两者发生的概率具有密切联系。从理论和观测事实两方面证明一地平均气候与其极端气候的对应概率存在着明显的非线性关系。假定气候变量有对称概率分布和非对称概率分布两种状况,从理论上证明,平均气候变化前后所对应的极端气候概率具有非线性变化;通过对若干个代表站及气候场资料的平均值与所对应极值概率计算结果,证明理论符合观测事实。进一步借助于数值试验考察了概率分布模式的各个参数之变化对极端气候概率的影响。根据观测事实的举例,也表明了不同概率分布条件下,基本上都有如此变化规律。

Proven theories and observations in specific regions have demonstrated that average climates often exhibit significant nonlinear relationships with extreme climates. Two different types of climate variables that show symmetric and asymmetric probability distributions correspond to nonlinear changes from average to extreme climates. In this paper, the data from several representative stations and relative climatic variable fields are used to prove that theoretical estimated probabilities for extreme climates are more consistent with actual values. Examples are used to demonstrate cases in which the various probability distributions are observed.