环境变化对滦河流域径流影响的定量研究

Quantitative Study of Impacts for Environmental Change on Runoff in Luanhe River Basin

为了研究气候变化和人类活动(环境变化)对地表径流的定量影响程度,应用有序聚类分析法等确定了滦河流域径流变化的基准期和人类活动影响期,采用HBV模型还原了人类活动影响期间滦河流域天然径流量,识别了气候变化、人类活动对滦河流域人类活动影响期间径流的定量影响程度。研究结果表明:1979年之前是滦河流域径流序列的基准期,基准期内HBV水文模型对滦河流域天然径流过程具有良好的模拟效果。1980年以后人类活动对滦河流域地表径流影响加剧,天然径流与实测径流产生分离,人类活动影响期(1980—2007年)相对于基准期(1960—1979年)的变化而言,气候变化、人类活动影响因素对地表径流的影响分别占径流减少总量的55%和45%,人类活动在不同水平年对地表径流量的影响不同。随着人类活动影响的加剧,气候变化对滦河流域径流的影响在逐渐减弱,人类活动对该流域的影响在增强。

In order to study influence of quantitative degree of climate factors and human activities （environmental changes） on the surface runoff, clustering analysis was applied to determine the benchmark period of the Luanhe River Basin runoff variation and influence period of human activities, and HBV model was used to restore the natural runoff, identify the quantitative analysis influence degree of climate change and human activities for the Luanhe River Basin. The results showed the period before 1979 was the benchmark period of the runoff series, HBV model has a good simulation effect on the Luanhe River Basin runoff, human activities have an intensified in- fluence on the runoff. After 1980, natural runoff and measured runoff separated. The change of human activities affected period （1980 -2007） was compared with the benchmark period （1960 - 1979）. The influence of climate factors and human activities on runoff amount accounted for 55% and 45 % of the total reduced runoff. At different levels, human activities have different effects on runoff, but the analysis found that with the intensification of human activities, the impact of climatic factors in the Luanhe River Basin is gradually weakened, the impact of human activities is increased in the basin.