二元劳动力结构与通货膨胀动态形成机制——基于新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线框架

Dual Labor Structure and Dynamic Formation Mechanism of Inflation:Based on the Framework of New Keynesian Phillips Curve

在中国二元经济结构下,从事非农业劳务的劳动力供给具有二元特性,即农村居民既从事农业劳务又从事非农业劳务,而城镇居民一般仅从事非农业劳务。文章基于新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型,构建了二元劳动力结构下的通货膨胀方程,并通过时间序列数据检验了相关关系后发现,城镇居民劳务收入变动是影响通货膨胀的显著正相关因素,但农村居民劳务收入变动与通货膨胀之间没有显著的相关关系。文章在一定程度上也验证了刘易斯关于二元经济结构下劳动力工资水平决定的设想,这有益于深入理解中国通货膨胀的成本推动形成机制。

In China as a dual economy, the supply of labor engaged in non-agricultural jobs is featured by duality, that is to say rural residents are engaged in not only agriculture labor but also non-agricultural labor, but urban residents are generally engaged only in non-agricultural labor. Based on the model of the new Keynesian Phillips curve, this paper constructs an inflation equation under dual labor structure, and examines the correlation through the time series data. It reaches the conclusions that the change in la- bor income of urban residents has a significantly positive effect on inflation, but the change in labor income of rural residents has no significantly positive effect on inflation. It also verifies Lewis idea on the determination of labor wages in a dual economy to a certain extent,thus contributing to a more indepth understanding of the formation mechanism of cost-driven inflation in China.