基于ANP与模糊理论的寒区隧道冻害风险评估与管理研究

On Risk Assessment and Management of Frost Damage in a Tunnel Located in a Cold Region Based on ANP and Fuzzy Theory

冻害风险是寒区隧道工程建设中的常见灾害,其影响因素复杂,不确定因素较多。文章在广泛调研基础上,结合基于Likert量表的问卷调查建立了冻害风险评价指标体系,利用ANP综合分析各因素之间的相互影响度,计算出二级指标的整体权重,找出主要风险源;再运用模糊评价法分析处理专家评价意见,结合整体权重计算出冻害风险综合评价分值。昆仑山隧道实例证明,该体系具有针对性、客观性和可行性,可有效识别冻害风险影响因素;利用ANP与模糊综合评价可辨识出主要风险源并给出量化风险指标,可为实现有效的风险管理提供理论依据。

The risk of damage caused by freezing is very common for tunnels in cold regions; the influencing factors in these circumstances are complex and there are many uncertainties. Based on broad research results combined with Likert questionnaire survey, an index system for asses the mutual effects of various factors, calculate the overall sing th weight e risk of frost damage was set secondary index using up AN in order to analyze P, main risk sources. Using the fuzzy evaluation method, the experts＇ comments were addressed and th scores of frost damage with overall weight were calculated. Using KunLun mountain tunnel as and identify the e comprehensive an experimental example, this paper asserts that the system has three characteristics, which are pertinence, objectivity, and feasibility, and proves that the system can effectively identify influential factors of frost damage. Using both ANP and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method it is possible to identify the main sources of the risk and to allow for the creation of an influence index, thereby providing theoretical evidence for effective risk management