2012年国内外玉米产业发展分析及2013年展望

Analysis on Global and Domestic Development of Maize in 2012 and Perspective in 2013

2012年中国玉米产量增长7.95%,创历史纪录;同时,国内玉米需求小幅增长,供需形势显著改善。玉米进口数量显著增长,预计超过500万t,进口快速增长与国内玉米库存调整有关。2012年全球玉米产量下降,主要是因为美国在6—7月遭受严重干旱,玉米产量比正常预期大幅降低;由于美国玉米减产,使得全球玉米价格在6—7月大幅上涨。2013年国际市场玉米需求增长预计较为平缓,市场供求将显著改善,国际玉米价格预计回落;国内玉米价格预计小幅上涨。根据近年来国内外玉米供需变化,提出建议:国家需要进一步加大科研和基础设施投入,夯实玉米生产能力;促进新技术采用和耕作方式变革,显著降低玉米生产成本。同时,在2013年,需要关注国外玉米新品种采用、贸易政策变化和玉米产量增长所带来的挑战和价格风险。

China＇s maize production rose remarkably by 7.95% in 2012 to a new historical record; meanwhile, domestic demand of maize increased steadily and the situation of demand and supply improved significantly. While the import of maize grew tremendously to a level more than 5 million tons, it was mainly due to the adjustment of storage. Global maize production dropped slightly in 2012, mostly because severe drought happened in USA during June to July, which led to the production in USA much lower than the expected level ; the reduction of U. S. maize made the global price of maize soar in June-July. The global price of maize in 2013 is expected to fall because of the much improved situation of global maize supply and demand, however, the domestic maize price would keep the rising trace slightly. Based on our analysis, it was proposed that China should further increase R＆D investment and improve the infrastructure to enhance the productivity of maize; moreover, the effective methods of adopting new varieties and innovation of cultivation should be promoted to reduce the maize production costs. We also should pay attention to the challenges and price risks induced by the adoption of new maize varieties in other countries, changes of trade policy and rising maize production.