广东省城镇居民鲜乳品消费市场展望——基于双栏式模型的实证分析

Prospect of Urban Households' Fresh Milk Consumption Market in Guangdong Province——Based on Double-Hurdle Model Empirical Analysis

基于2007—2009年广东省城镇居民的调查数据,运用双栏式模型对城镇居民户内鲜乳品消费的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,家庭收入水平和鲜乳品价格对城镇居民鲜乳品消费的参与决策和支出决策具有显著影响;饲料粮(如豆粕)价格的高低、家庭是否有老人或小孩以及是否有冰箱等也是影响鲜乳品消费的重要因素;同时,城镇居民户内鲜乳品消费量与鸡蛋价格、户主文化程度、家庭人口规模呈显著正相关;在经济越发达的地区,家庭鲜乳品消费支出比重也就越大;受"三鹿奶粉事件"影响,广东省城镇居民户内鲜乳品消费量逐年减少。因此,有必要从消费者、企业和政府3个层面采取有效措施扩大鲜乳品消费。

The objective of this study was to use a double -hurdle model to analyze determinants of urban households＇ fresh milk consumption, using the urban household sample data in Guangdong province from 2007 to 2009. The results showed that income growth and price of fresh milk had significant effects on fresh milk consumption at-home, both on participation and expenditure decision-making; price of feed grain （as soybean meal ）, different age groups and owning refrigerator were also important determinants; meanwhile, egg price, the level of householders＇ education and family size had positive effects on the fresh milk consumption; families in developed regions consumed more fresh milk than those in less developed regions; the fresh milk consumption of urban householders in Guangdong province was decreasing over the years affected by the Sanlu milk formula scandal in 2008. Therefore, it＇s necessary to take effective measures to expand fresh milk consumption by consumers, enterprises and government.