城市化水平与非点源水污染关系实证研究——基于洱海流域的调查

Empirical research on urbanization level and non-point source water pollution: based on the investigation of Erhai basin

运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验方法,考察了洱海流域1999-2011年城市化水平与非点源水污染之间的相互关系。研究结果表明:城市化水平与非点源水污染序列都是一阶单整序列;城市化水平与非点源水污染之间存在协整关系;短期上总磷(TP)的排放会制约城市的发展,而化学需氧量(COD)和总氮(TN)的排放对于城市化的发展具有推动作用,长期上总磷的排放对城市化发展的制约作用会增加,化学需氧量和总氮的排放对城市化发展的推动作用也会增加;存在从化学需氧量总排量、总磷排量、总氮排量到城市化水平的单向格兰杰因果关系,而反向的关系得不到实证检验。

Using co - integration and granger causality test, this essay analyzes the mutual relationship between urbanization level and non- point source water pollution based on the data of Erhai basin from 1999 to 2011. The results can be shown as follows： Both urbanization level and non - point source water pollution are sequences of order form. A co - integration relation between urbanization level and non - point source water pollution does exist. Different pollutants of non - point water pollution have different affect on urbanization, the emission of TP can restrain the development of urbanization and the emission of COD and TN have motive effect on the development of urbanization somehow in the short term ; in the long term, TP emission＇ s restrain effect on the urbanization development will increase and COD and TN emission＇ s motive effect will increase. The result of Granger test signifies that there is a one - way Granger causality, from the emission of COD, TP, TN to urbanization, while there＇s no empirical evidence on the inverse relation.