我国木质林产品贸易与森林生态安全耦合度研究

Coupling Degree of International Woody Forest Products Trade and Forest Ecology Safety

"两头在外"是我国林产品贸易的典型特征,它意味着对国内和国外森林资源的大量消耗。木质林产品贸易和森林生态安全的协调是开放条件下实现我国森林可持续发展的必经之路。文中运用耦合理论研究1961—2010年我国木质林产品贸易和森林生态安全之间的协调问题,结论认为:1)2004之前森林生态安全指数高于木质林产品贸易指数,2005—2008年则低于木质林产品贸易指数,1991年之后木质林产品贸易指数的波动幅度显著大于森林生态安全指数。2)1961—1999年森林生态安全指数与木质林产品贸易指数的协调状态在初级协调和勉强协调之间波动;2000年之后二者的协调进入稳定阶段,并在2003年由初级协调进入中级协调阶段。

＂A large number of export and import＂ is typical characteristics of China forestry economy, which means that both the domestic and foreign forest resource is of large consumption. Harmonization of China＇ s woody forest products international trade and forest ecology safety is the must way of sustainable development in open condition. The paper established a dynamic coupling model studying development between woody forest products international trade and forest ecology safety. Conclusion indicates that： （ 1 ） Before 2004, forest ecological security index is higher than the index of woody forest products trade; In 2005-2008, the former is lower than the latter; After 1991, volatility of woody forest products trade index is significantly larger than the forest ecological safety. （2） In 1961 -1999, coordination status of the two fluctuations between primary coordination and under-primary coordination; After 2000, the Coordination of the two enters a stable stage, and in 2003 it getting into intermediate-harmonious level from the primary coordination