润滑油市场消费容量预测研究

Research on the Market Consumption Capacity Prediction of Lubricants

随着社会经济的飞速发展,润滑油的应用范围越来越广泛,对于润滑油实际消费量的准确掌握具有重要的意义。文章分析了市场消费容量的判断和分析方法,并系统阐述了市场容量与国民经济发展、汽柴油消费、能源消耗等因素的关联性,运用组合模型建立了润滑油市场预测模型,预测2015年我国润滑油市场容量是843万t,预测精度较高,平均相对误差1.19%。

With the rapid development of the nation economy, lubricants have a wide range of applications. It is very more important to grasp the real consumption of lubricants precisely. This paper focuses on the judgment and analysis methods of market consumption capacity, the relationship of market capacity to national economic development, gasoline and diesel consumption, and energy consumption. Furthermore, the lubricating oil market forecast model is built by using combination model. It is forecasted that China lubricating oil market capacity will be up to 8.43 million tons by 2015, and the prediction accuracy is higher, the average relative error is 1.19%.