气候变化下水资源适应性系统脆弱性评价——以鄱阳湖流域为例

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF WATER RESOURCES ADAPTIVE SYSTEM FACING CLIMATE CHANGE——A CASE OF THE POYANG LAKE BASIN

从系统科学的视角出发,分析气候变化下水资源适应性系统脆弱性的内涵,基于脆弱性PSR分析框架,从胁迫性、敏感性、适应性3个维度构建了脆弱性评价指标体系,并采用熵值法和集对分析相结合的方法对脆弱性进行评价。结合2001～2010年鄱阳湖流域数据进行了实证研究,结果表明:10a间鄱阳湖流域水资源适应性系统脆弱性的变化受胁迫性、敏感性和适应性的综合影响,脆弱性先明显增加后缓慢下降,但基本处于中等偏差水平。鄱阳湖流域水资源适应性系统脆弱性主要由降水量变化、自然灾害和经济发展产生的能源消耗、污染问题引发,提高系统适应性对缓解脆弱性有明显作用。根据评价分析,建议鄱阳湖流域未来从提高管理能力、经济及社会响应能力和加强环境生态治理等方面采取适应性对策;通过改善鄱阳湖流域发展方式和生态环境,减少脆弱性和提高可持续发展能力,更好地发挥鄱阳湖流域对国家生态安全的保障作用。

Current water resource management is facing more dynamic and complex difficulties caused by climate change and the rapid development. Adaptive management is considered as a new approach to successful water resources management. Facing increasing uncertainty, vulnerability assessment is an important initial process of adaptive management. This paper studied the vulnerability of water resources adaptive system, a society-economies-ecology compound system, from the perspective of systems science, in order to find possible adaptive measures. Firstly, this paper defined water resources adaptive system, and explaind the definition of its vulnerability. Then a Pressure-State-Response model （PSR model） was introduced for vul- nerability analysis. Base on the PSR model, this article designed a vulnerability assessment index system of water resources adaptive system, which included pressure, sensibility and adaptability dimensions. At last based on entropy method and set pair analysis,we evaluated vulnerability of the Poyang Lake Basin by using data from 2001 to 2010. It indicated that vulnerability change trend was influenced by the change of pressure, sensibility and adaptability. During 10 years, vulnerability of the Poyang Lake Basin experienced a first increasing then slowly declining trend, and overall vulnerability index was below the medium level. Pressure index of water resources adaptive system fluctuated in decades, and mainly kept at a medium level in the Poyang Lake Basin. Major system pressures were caused by precipitation change, nature disasters, large amounts of energy consummation and pollution resulted from rapid economic development. As an important agriculture region of China, the Poyang Lake Basin had a large agricultural population; economic and social were sensitive to climate changes in accord with the sensibility index trend. Since 2001 ,adaptabil- ity had improved greatly, attributed to the economic development, scientific and technological advance, envi- ronment protection and ecological management. During the decades the increase of pressure and sensibility had a negative influence of system vulnerability. Fortunately, the amelioration of adaptability had a significant effect on reducing vulnerability of water resources adaptive system to climate changes and social changes. According to predicts,in the future with the rising temperature in the Poyang Lake River Basin, the ecological environment probably has the trend of degradation,agricultural production will be affected. At the same time, with economic development, the pressure from increasing energy consumption and water re- sources demand will further exacerbate the vulnerability of water resources adaptive system. Since the sig- nificant position of the Poyang Lake Basin to national ecological security strategy, adaptive measures should be take to ameliorate development mode and environment, improve the ability to respond to climate change and the capacity for sustainable development. To reduce the system vulnerability, four types adaptive meas- ures could be adopted to increase adaptability. Those adaptive measures include ameliorating water conser- vancy facilities and urban infrastructure, improving emergency response capability, adjusting economic development model, improving resources efficiency, enforcing propaganda of environmental protection, controlling soil erosion and pollution emission,increasing environmental protection budget,etc.