中国巨额美元储备的财务收益与成本匡算

The Financial Benefits of China's Huge Dollar Reserves and Cost Calculations

本文在中美两国模型的简单理论框架下剖析了我国巨额美元外汇储备的形成机理及其流向,并借鉴财务分析的思想,从货币当局的视角匡算了外汇储备引致的投资收益、冲销成本以及贬值成本。文章将货币当局的成本与收益进行配比发现,加入WTO后的十年来,我国持有外汇储备的成本明显大于收益,损失呈现出逐年扩大的趋势。说明我国目前管理外汇储备的财务效果欠佳,储备战略陷入迷茫期,未来需要合理控制外汇储备的规模并适当调整资产结构。

This paper analyzes the formation mechanism and flow direction of China's huge dollar reserves in a simple theoretical framework of the 'Sino-US' model.Learning from the ideas of financial analysis,we calculate roughly the return on investment,the offsetting costs and the depreciation costs caused by the foreign exchange reserves from the perspective of the monetary authorities.The study found that,in the ten years since joining the WTO,the costs of our foreign exchange reserves are much greater than its gains.What's worse,the losses are showing the expanding trend year by year.To sum up,the financial effect of our management of foreign exchange reserves at present is poor.And the strategic development for foreign exchange reserves is experiencing a perplexed situation.The size of foreign exchange reserves should be controlled reasonably and the structure of the assets should be adjusted properly in the future.