联系概率的由来及其在风险决策中的应用

The Contact Probability in Risk Decision-Making Medium Application

观察一简单随机摸球实验:当盒子中只有白球时,事件A="任抽一球是白球"是必然事件;当盒子中有白球黑球时,事件A是随机事件,这一实验表明事件A的随机性是2个事物(白、黑球)相互联系的一种属性,借此实验说明概率用联系数表述的原理以及联系概率的来由,同时还介绍了引出联系概率时用到的一些新概念,举例说明联系概率在风险决策中的应用.

Observation of a simple random touch ball experiment：When the box only whiteball, event A=＂ allow to draw a ball is white ball＂ is a necessary event; there are white balls and the black balls in the box, event A is a random event,This experiment showed that event A randomness is one of 2things （ white, black ） interconnected to a property, by this experiment indicates that the probability of using connection number representations of the principle as well as the contact probability, it also introduces the leading-out contact probability to use some new concept,application with examples of contact probability in risk decision.