基于多元线性回归分析的民用运输机场旅客吞吐量预测

The Prediction for Civil Airport Passenger Throughput Based on Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

修建第二机场的必要性以及何时开始修建,取决于该地区的机场旅客吞吐量何时达到饱和.从机场旅客吞吐量的可能影响因素出发,分析各影响因素与旅客吞吐量之间的相关性,并以西南地区某枢纽运输机场为例,建立机场旅客吞吐量的多元线性回归预测模型,预测该机场未来年的旅客吞吐量,并利用时间序列法对所得的预测值进行验证.结果表明,该模型能够较准确的预测出机场未来年的旅客吞吐量,为机场扩建或新建第二机场的必要性提供科学依据.

The necessity of building a second airport and the time for building both dependon when do the airport passenger throughput reached saturated. This article starts from the factors which may influence the airport passenger throughput, and makes an analysis on the correlation between each influence factor and the throughput. Then takes one airport in the southwest for example, builds a multiple linear regression prediction model for the airport passenger throughput, and forecasts the airport passenger throughput in the next few years, then uses time series method to verify the prediction. Finally, the result shows that the model can predict the future airport passenger throughput accurately, thus it can offer valuable suggestions for policy makers.