ARIMA模型在达尔文通信模式研究中的运用

An Application of ARIMA model in Study of Darwin's Mail Communication Pattern

首先利用ARIMA模型,研究了进化论的提出者查尔斯·达尔文(Charles R.Darwin,1809/02/12-1882/04/19)从1866到1879年期间的通信量变化规律,并根据模型优化的AIC和BIC准则求得ARIMA优化模型.接着,应用ARIMA优化模型,对达尔文1880至1881年的月通信数量的时间序列进行了预测.预测的月通信数量与实际通信数量的对比说明,ARIMA优化模型拟合效果良好,并能够较好的反映达尔文学术生涯后期实际通信量的时间变化规律.研究结果表明,ARIMA优化模型可以作为一种研究人类通信模式的有效模型加以广泛应用.

In this paper, time series of Charles R. Daxwin＇s mail communication is investigated by ARIMA model. This time series is about Darwin＇s mail volume, including sent from and received by Darwin, during 1866 to 1879. According to BIC criterion, we get a group of parameters for ARIMA model. To forecast the Darwin＇s mail volume during 1880 to 1881, we employ ARIMA model with previously obtained parameters. The results show that the forecast of ARIMA model fit well with the real mail volume during 1880 to 1881, and ARIMA model with given parameters can reflect the time evolution of Darwin＇s mail communication in his scientific career. The results also show that the ARIMA model can be widely used as an effective model to study the human＇s mail communication pattern.