房地产市场区域性特征探索

本文采用聚类分析方法从地区经济增长速度和房地产市场运营、盈利、偿债和规模四方面将我国31个省、直辖市和自治区划分为五大区域。研究结论主要有:房地产业的发展与经济增长密切相关,二者均呈现明显的区域性特征;房地产市场发展与地区经济增长速度基本一致,只有天津、山东、江西和广西四个地区房地产市场发展高于经济增长速度,而内蒙古和河北省则相反。以A类区域为例进行的住宅价格的相关性研究显示,区域内部住宅价格存在扩散和趋同效应,上海与北京、北京与天津之间都存在双向格兰杰因果关系;上海是天津的格兰杰原因,即存在先导-滞后关系,二者关系是单向的,反之则不成立。

According to economic growth and real estate marketing, earnings, debts and scales, 31 provinces, ？ municipalities？ and au- tonomous regions in China are divided into five areas by means of the cluster analysis method. We conclude that real estate market growth is correlated with economic growth closely, and both of them have obvious regional characteristics. Real estate market growth is approximately consistent with economic growth. The real estate market growth is higher than the economic growth in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangxi and Guangxi. However, it is contrary in Inner Mongolia and Hebei. Moreover, housing price diffusion and convergence are obvious in area A. There are bilateral Granger causalities between Shanghai and Beijing, and between Beijing and Tianjin. Nevertheless, only a unilateral Granger causality exists between Shanghai and Tianjin. In fact, there is a pilot - lag relationship between Shanghai and Tianjin.