基于VAR模型的新疆城市化动力机制研究

在对1992-2011年新疆城市化、工业化、服务业以及农业现代化的原始指标数据进行处理与检验的基础上建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数与方差分解的计量分析方法对新疆城市化动力机制进行分析,得出以下结论:新疆农村剩余劳动力比例过重且转移困难、轻工业偏轻、重工业产业地方化不足是造成了现阶段新疆城市化动力不足的主要原因;近年来,服务业是新疆城市化最主要的动力,但由于服务业具有"虚高"的特点,服务业在长期内对新疆城市化的作用不明显。

On the basis of handling and inspection of the raw data of urbanization, industrialization, services and agricultural modern- ization from 1992 to 2011 in Xinjiang, this article builds a VAR Model. With the quantitative methods of the impulse re- sponse function and the variance decomposition, it analyses the Dynamic Mechanism of Urbanization in Xinjiang, which concludes that the overweighed proportion of the rural surplus labor force in Xinjiang, the less - weighed proportion of light industry, and the insufficiently localized heavy industry are the main reasons for insufficient motivation of urbanization. In recent years, the service sector is the most important driving force of urbanization in Xinjiang. Because of the virtual height of the service industry, in the long term, the role of the service industry is not obvious in Xinjiang.