我国房地产价格影响因素的实证分析——兼论当前房地产调控政策

An Empirical Analysis of Influencing Factors in Real Estate Prices of China and The Current Real Estate Regulating Policy

本文采用2002年1季度至2011年3季度的经济数据构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,实证分析了影响我国房地产价格的主要因素,并重点研究房地产宏观调控政策对房地产价格的影响。研究结果表明:我国经济基本面已经很难解释当前房地产价格的走势,房地产调控政策成为影响我国房地产价格的重要因素。其中,土地政策和保障房政策对房地产价格的影响虽然存在一定时滞,但对房地产价格的影响是长期的且效果明显;货币政策和信贷政策对房地产价格的影响相对较小,存款准备金率的调整是最有效的货币政策工具。

In this paper, we establish a Vector Autoregressive （VAR） model with the economic data from 2002Q1 to 2011Q3 and empirically analysis the main factors which influence China＇ s real estate price and the dynamic effects of different control policies on the real estate price especially. The results show that： China＇ s economic ftmdamentals can＇ t explain the trend of real estate price and real estate regulation policies have become the important factors which influence the real estate price. The supply of land and investment of indemnificatory apartment will influence the real estate price markedly in the long run, although there are lime lags of both policies. The effects of monetary policy and credit policy on the real estale price are relatively small, but the deposit reserve rate policy is the most effective monetary policy.