情景分析法在美国“预见情报”中的运用

Applications of Scenario Analysis in the Predictive Intelligence of the United States National Intelligence

情景分析法是在环境非常复杂，不确定性非常高的情况下预见未来的一个重要方法。该方法在情报分析中的运用，虽然国内外都有一定的介绍，但这些介绍要么缺乏实际案例；要么案例过度简化令人很难理解。美国国家情报部门的案例国内尚未见到，该方法在美国情报部门日常情报工作中的运用模式还没有人做过研究。本文通过对美国中央情报局最新解密的24份预见情报文件的梳理，总结了情景分析法在美国情报部门的运用，为我国企业和国家情报研究人员提供了“最佳实践”案例。本研究有助于我国情报工作者更好地借鉴国外的情报分析方法以及更好地保护我们自己的情报。

Scenario analysis is a very important method to foresight the future in a very complex and uncertain environment. Although there are some discussions about the application of the method in our country, the discussions either have not offered any actual examples or have offered only highly simplified, hard - to - understand cases. We haven＇ t seen any actual cases from the intelligence agents of the United States and no research has been done on the operational patterns of the method in the daily intelligence work of the US agents. This paper has filled the gap. The paper has studied 24 newly declassified National Intelligence Estimates of the US intelligence agents, summed up the actual uses of the method in these documents, thus providing an example of ＂best practice＂ for the intelligence workers of our country. The study is helpful for our intelligence workers to learn the intelligence analysis methods from foreign countries and to protect our own intelligence.