基于马歇尔—勒纳条件的中国茶叶贸易收支研究

Research on BOPs of China’s Tea Trade Based on the Marshall-Lerner Condition

马歇尔—勒纳条件是分析汇率变动对贸易收支影响的重要理论。本文采用我国1986～2008年茶叶进出口的序列数据,通过分析我国对不同经济体的茶叶进出口需求弹性,并构建实际有效汇率等因素与茶叶贸易收支的计量模型,研究了我国茶叶进出口与马歇尔—勒纳条件间的满足关系。研究表明,我国与不同国家的茶叶贸易收支受汇率变动的影响不同;就我国茶叶对外贸易总体而言,茶叶进口价格下降会增加进口额,出口价格上升会增加出口额;而人民币升值会改善我国茶叶贸易收支,人民币贬值会恶化我国茶叶贸易收支,且进出口需求弹性之和小于1。因此,我国茶叶贸易收支反向符合马歇尔—勒纳条件,这为汇率波动背景下科学处理茶叶贸易问题提供了重要的理论指导。

The Marshall-Lerner Condition is one of the important theories to explore the impact of exchange rates on BOPs. This paper uses the annual data of China＇s tea import and export from 1986 to 2008 to analyze whether China＇s tea trade meets the Marshall-Lerner Condition or not. In order to achieve this purpose, we calculate the demand elasticity of China＇s tea import and export, and build the econometrics model to analyze the relationship between the real exchange rate of RMB and China＇s tea BOPs. The result explains that the tea trade between China and other countries shows different effects to the changes of RMB exchange rates. On the whole, the rise of tea export price will give rise to the tea export value, while the decrease of tea import price will increase the import value. The appreciation of RMB will promote China＇s tea BOPs, while the devaluation of RMB will worsen BOPs, The demand elasticity of imports and exports is less than 1, so basically speaking, China＇s tea trade is consistent with the Marshall-Lerner Condition.