核准制下IPO数量波动的影响因素研究——对企业、监管机构择时发行的分析

The Study of the Influential Factors of IPO Fluctuations in the Approval System —An analysis Based on the Issuing Option of the Enterprises and Regulators

本文利用负二项计数回归模型研究了核准制情形下中国IPO市场的周期性现象及其宏、微观影响因素。样本选取区间为2002年至2010年。研究表明:(1)中国IPO数量呈现出明显的"扎堆现象";由于中国股票上市制度的改革,企业、监管机构有着较强择时发行的动机,这使得IPO数量同宏观经济形势、股票市场热度与企业财务信息与有着较强的相关性。其中,宏观经济形势与股票市场热度指标是其主要影响因素。(2)出于社会稳定的考虑,对于不同类别企业的IPO,监管机构有着不同的政策导向;IPO政策较偏向于对较高负债的重点企业与规模较大的非重点企业进行融资。对于上述实证结果,本文结合西方上市理论与中国特殊的发行制度给出了解释。

This paper uses the negative binomial count data regression model to study the Chinese IPO cycle and its influential factors in the approval system from 2002 to 2010. The study shows： （ 1 ） There exists an apparent ＂hot issuing phenomenon＂ in Chinese initial market. Due to the reform of the Chinese equity IPO system, the enterprises and regulators have a strong motivation to issue timely, which will make the number of IPO synchronous to the macroeconomic situation, stock market and enterprise financing conditions. Among these factors above, macroeconomic and stock market factors have a greater influence. （2） Considering the stability of the economic situation, regulators have different IPO policy guidance to the different types of enterprises. The IPO policy tends to provide financing for the key enterprises with higher liability and common enterprises with bigger scale. This paper also explains the empirical results by combining the western IPO theories and Chinese IPO system.