区域间风电投资收益风险对比分析模型

A Model for Contrastive Analysis on Risk of Income From Investment in Different Wind Power Resource Regions

由于风电出力具有随机性和间歇性,风电的可并网量在一定程度上受到很大约束。结合我国当前风电发展相关政策,从政策、经济和风电消纳3个角度进行风电发展风险分析,并提出相应的风电效益分析模型。通过算例分析和敏感性分析发现,III、IV类风电资源区具有很好的发展前景,应该是未来的风电发展重心。

The wind power accommodated by power grid is greatly restrained by the intermittence and the randomness of wind turbine output.Based on present policy relevant to the development of wind power industry in China,the risk of developing wind power industry is analyzed in three aspects,namely the policy,economy and accommodation ability of wind power,and a corresponding analysis model to analyze the benefit from wind power generation is proposed.It is found by case calculation and sensitivity analysis that in view of good development prospects the third and the fourth type of wind power resource regions should be regarded as the key regions for the development of wind power generation.