2012年世界船舶市场评述与未来展望

Review of world ship market in 2012 and future prospect

首先对2012年的世界经济发展作了概述,并对这一年的船舶行业进行总结、回顾,对未来市场进行预测。2012年的世界船舶行业延续2011年的低迷。在航运市场上,三大主力船型的运价指数均较去年下一个台阶;在建造市场方面,集装箱船和散货船的新船订单量均大幅下滑,油船则相对好些。归根结底,造成这种局面的原因还是"需求疲软,运力过剩"。世界宏观经济实质上的不景气对需求面产生较大影响,而之前市场景气时所囤积的大量手持订单在近两年陆续释放造成运力过剩情况的不断加剧。虽然随着拆解量的增加和手持订单的减少会稍微缓解市场压力,但短期内仍难真正复苏,主动控制运力成为目前船东维持生存的主要手段。

After summarizing the world economy development in 2012 ,this paper reviews the ship market of this year and forecasts the future. The world ship market in 2012 continued the depression in 2011. The freight index of three main types shows downslide in shipping market,and the new orders of container ship and bulk carrier greatly decreased,whereas less decrement for the tanker. It can be concluded that the reason for this situation is ＂weak demand and superfluous capacity＂. The substantially recession of the world macro-economy significantly influenced the realistic demand. Moreover,the great amount of orders stocked up when the market was booming have been released successively in the last two years, which aggravated superfluous capacity. Although the increasing of ship scraping and the completion for orders in hand may slightly alleviate the market pressure ,the real recovery can＇t take place in a short time,and the initiative control of the shipping capacity will be the main measure for ship owners now.