近50年黄河三角洲降水量特征分析与情势预测

Feature analysis and situation prediction for precipitation of the Yellow River Delta in the recent fifty years

针对黄河三角洲5个气象站1961～2006年逐日实测数据,利用统计量分析、Mann-Ken-dall非参数检验及反距离权重空间插值等方法分析近50年黄河三角洲地区降水量的时空变化特征,并由此预测2011～2045年降水量的年际线性变化趋势.分析结果表明:近50年黄河三角洲地区降水量呈递减趋势,并在1976年左右发生突变,突变之后降水量明显下降;而未来2011～2045年降水量亦呈现缓慢的下降趋势,并将在2033年发生突变.针对分析结果,提出相应措施优化水资源,实现黄河三角洲水资源的发展性持续利用.

Based on the daily measured data of 5 meteorological stations in the Yellow River Del- ta, statistical analysis, Mann--Kendall trend test and inverse distance weight methods were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation in the recent 50 years and predict the annual change trend between 2011 and 2045. The results showed that the precipitation in the area declined in the study period, and there was a mutation in about 1976, and the descending speed became faster af- ter that time point. The precipitation in the area will decline between 2011 and 2045 again and there will be a mutation in about 2033. According to the results, corresponding measures are pro- posed to improve water in order to realize the sustainable development for the Yellow River Delta water.