多状态系统的可能可靠性分析

Possibility Theory Based Multi-State System Reliability Analysis

为进一步深入开展对系统的可能可靠性分析,克服由系统状态可能性分布难以获取、使基于可能性理论的系统可靠性分析停留在初级阶段的问题,引入最大可能剩余寿命来表征系统状态与剩余寿命之间的内在函数关系。将系统状态对应的最大可能剩余寿命定义为该状态下系统保有最大可能剩余的寿命时间,通过最大可能剩余寿命建立了系统状态可能性分布与系统寿命可能性分布之间的关系,同时引入系统状态变化的观测时刻,它是联系系统状态与对应的最大可能剩余寿命之间的函数关系变量,重新定义了多状态系统的可能可靠性函数。进而,利用系统寿命的可能性分布,避开难以入手的系统状态可能性分布,实现了对系统可能可靠性的分析,得到了系统可能可靠性的计算方法。

Due to the discreteness of system state, it is difficult to obtain the system state possibility distribution, thus the possibility theory based system reliability analysis stays at an elementary stage. To deal with the system state possibility distribution and more accurately analyze the system possibilistic reliability, state corresponding most possible residual lifetime （MPRL） is introduced to express the internal functional relationship between system state and residual lifetime. The MPRL is defined as the system most possible remaining lifetime under this state, which connects the system state possibility distribution with system lifetime possibility distribution. The variable at investigating moment is introduced to link the system state and corresponding most possible residual lifetime, then the possibilistic reliability function of multi- state system is redefined. The system possibilistic reliability analysis can be realized with system lifetime possibility distribution instead of state possibility distribution.